Match probabilities from World Football Elo ratings
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Co-hosted by USA 🇺🇸, Mexico 🇲🇽 & Canada 🇨🇦. A host nation playing in its own country gets the home-advantage boost; every other match is treated as neutral. Click any match to show its odds at the top.
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|
Win expectancy. With Elo difference d = EloA − EloB + homeAdvantage, team A's
expected result is We = 1 / (1 + 10−d/400) — the standard World
Football Elo formula. This is an expected points fraction (win = 1, draw = ½, loss = 0).
Splitting into win / draw / loss. Draws are most likely when teams are evenly matched, so draw
probability follows a bell curve in d:
P(draw) = D₀·e−d²/(2σ²) with D₀ = 0.29, σ = 350 (typical for international
football). Then P(A win) = We − P(draw)/2 and
P(B win) = 1 − We − P(draw)/2.
Fair odds are simply 1 / probability (no bookmaker margin).
Home advantage defaults to 100 Elo, the standard convention for international football. Set the venue to Neutral for tournament neutral-ground matches.
Ratings snapshot based on World Football Elo ratings. Estimates only — football is delightfully unpredictable.
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