Netherlands

Netherlands holds a World Football Elo rating of 1944, ranking #8 of 244 national teams — a top-tier side and a genuine World Cup contender. At the 2026 World Cup, Netherlands is drawn in Group F, facing Japan, Sweden and Tunisia. The tables below estimate Netherlands's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

Netherlands at the 2026 World Cup

Group F fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-14	Japan	40.4%	28.9%	30.7%	Dallas (neutral)
06-20	Sweden	62.3%	25.1%	12.7%	Houston (neutral)
06-25	Tunisia	80.2%	17.1%	2.7%	Kansas City (neutral)

Netherlands vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	13.0%	25.2%	61.8%
Argentina	2115	14.3%	25.7%	59.9%
France	2063	19.8%	27.4%	52.8%
England	2024	24.6%	28.3%	47.2%
Portugal	1989	29.2%	28.8%	42.1%
Colombia	1982	30.1%	28.8%	41.0%
Brazil	1978	30.7%	28.9%	40.4%
Germany	1939	36.2%	29.0%	34.8%
Norway	1914	39.9%	28.9%	31.2%
Croatia	1912	40.2%	28.9%	31.0%
Japan	1910	40.4%	28.9%	30.7%

Netherlands vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near Netherlands in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
France	2063	19.8%	27.4%	52.8%
England	2024	24.6%	28.3%	47.2%
Portugal	1989	29.2%	28.8%	42.1%
Colombia	1982	30.1%	28.8%	41.0%
Brazil	1978	30.7%	28.9%	40.4%
Germany	1939	36.2%	29.0%	34.8%
Norway	1914	39.9%	28.9%	31.2%
Croatia	1912	40.2%	28.9%	31.0%
Japan	1910	40.4%	28.9%	30.7%
Ecuador	1890	43.4%	28.7%	28.0%