France

France holds a World Football Elo rating of 2063, ranking #3 of 244 national teams — one of the strongest national teams in world football. At the 2026 World Cup, France is drawn in Group I, facing Senegal, Iraq and Norway. The tables below estimate France's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

France at the 2026 World Cup

Group I fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-16	Senegal	64.0%	24.5%	11.5%	New York (neutral)
06-22	Iraq	87.0%	12.4%	0.5%	Philadelphia (neutral)
06-26	Norway	57.0%	26.5%	16.5%	Boston (neutral)

France vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	26.4%	28.5%	45.1%
Argentina	2115	28.2%	28.7%	43.1%
England	2024	41.2%	28.8%	30.0%
Portugal	1989	46.3%	28.4%	25.3%
Colombia	1982	47.3%	28.2%	24.4%
Brazil	1978	47.9%	28.2%	23.9%
Netherlands	1944	52.8%	27.4%	19.8%
Germany	1939	53.5%	27.2%	19.3%
Norway	1914	57.0%	26.5%	16.5%
Croatia	1912	57.2%	26.4%	16.3%
Japan	1910	57.5%	26.4%	16.1%

France vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near France in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	26.4%	28.5%	45.1%
Argentina	2115	28.2%	28.7%	43.1%
England	2024	41.2%	28.8%	30.0%
Portugal	1989	46.3%	28.4%	25.3%
Colombia	1982	47.3%	28.2%	24.4%
Brazil	1978	47.9%	28.2%	23.9%
Netherlands	1944	52.8%	27.4%	19.8%