Senegal

Senegal holds a World Football Elo rating of 1860, ranking #20 of 244 national teams — a strong national team. At the 2026 World Cup, Senegal is drawn in Group I, facing France, Norway and Iraq. The tables below estimate Senegal's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

Senegal at the 2026 World Cup

Group I fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-16	France	11.5%	24.5%	64.0%	New York (neutral)
06-22	Norway	28.0%	28.7%	43.4%	New York (neutral)
06-26	Iraq	69.9%	22.3%	7.7%	Toronto (neutral)

Senegal vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	6.7%	21.6%	71.7%
Argentina	2115	7.6%	22.2%	70.2%
France	2063	11.5%	24.5%	64.0%
England	2024	15.0%	26.0%	59.0%
Portugal	1989	18.7%	27.1%	54.2%
Colombia	1982	19.5%	27.3%	53.2%
Brazil	1978	19.9%	27.4%	52.7%
Netherlands	1944	24.1%	28.2%	47.8%
Germany	1939	24.7%	28.3%	47.0%
Norway	1914	28.0%	28.7%	43.4%
Croatia	1912	28.2%	28.7%	43.1%
Japan	1910	28.5%	28.7%	42.8%

Senegal vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near Senegal in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Belgium	1879	32.8%	29.0%	38.3%
Uruguay	1870	34.1%	29.0%	36.9%
Denmark	1869	34.2%	29.0%	36.8%
Italy	1869	34.2%	29.0%	36.8%
Switzerland	1865	34.8%	29.0%	36.2%
Turkey	1849	37.1%	29.0%	33.9%
Morocco	1840	38.4%	29.0%	32.6%
Australia	1839	38.5%	28.9%	32.5%
Austria	1830	39.9%	28.9%	31.2%
Scotland	1794	45.1%	28.5%	26.4%