Uruguay

Uruguay holds a World Football Elo rating of 1870, ranking #16 of 244 national teams — a strong national team. At the 2026 World Cup, Uruguay is drawn in Group H, facing Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde and Spain. The tables below estimate Uruguay's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

Uruguay at the 2026 World Cup

Group H fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-15	Saudi Arabia	72.0%	21.4%	6.6%	Miami (neutral)
06-21	Cape Verde	71.1%	21.8%	7.0%	Miami (neutral)
06-26	Spain	7.4%	22.1%	70.6%	Guadalajara (neutral)

Uruguay vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	7.4%	22.1%	70.6%
Argentina	2115	8.3%	22.7%	69.0%
France	2063	12.3%	24.9%	62.8%
England	2024	16.0%	26.3%	57.7%
Portugal	1989	19.8%	27.4%	52.8%
Colombia	1982	20.6%	27.6%	51.8%
Brazil	1978	21.1%	27.7%	51.2%
Netherlands	1944	25.3%	28.4%	46.3%
Germany	1939	26.0%	28.4%	45.6%
Norway	1914	29.3%	28.8%	41.9%
Croatia	1912	29.6%	28.8%	41.6%
Japan	1910	29.9%	28.8%	41.3%

Uruguay vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near Uruguay in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Croatia	1912	29.6%	28.8%	41.6%
Japan	1910	29.9%	28.8%	41.3%
Ecuador	1890	32.6%	29.0%	38.4%
Mexico	1881	33.9%	29.0%	37.1%
Belgium	1879	34.2%	29.0%	36.8%
Denmark	1869	35.6%	29.0%	35.4%
Italy	1869	35.6%	29.0%	35.4%
Switzerland	1865	36.2%	29.0%	34.8%
Senegal	1860	36.9%	29.0%	34.1%
Turkey	1849	38.5%	28.9%	32.5%