Mexico

Mexico holds a World Football Elo rating of 1881, ranking #14 of 244 national teams — a top-tier side and a genuine World Cup contender. At the 2026 World Cup, Mexico is drawn in Group A, facing South Africa, South Korea and Czechia. The tables below estimate Mexico's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

Mexico at the 2026 World Cup

Group A fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-11	South Africa	87.8%	11.8%	0.4%	Mexico City (home)
06-18	South Korea	63.0%	24.8%	12.1%	Guadalajara (home)
06-24	Czechia	71.7%	21.6%	6.7%	Mexico City (home)

Mexico vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	8.1%	22.6%	69.4%
Argentina	2115	9.0%	23.2%	67.8%
France	2063	13.3%	25.3%	61.4%
England	2024	17.2%	26.7%	56.2%
Portugal	1989	21.1%	27.7%	51.2%
Colombia	1982	22.0%	27.8%	50.2%
Brazil	1978	22.4%	27.9%	49.7%
Netherlands	1944	26.8%	28.5%	44.7%
Germany	1939	27.4%	28.6%	44.0%
Norway	1914	30.8%	28.9%	40.3%
Croatia	1912	31.1%	28.9%	40.0%
Japan	1910	31.4%	28.9%	39.7%

Mexico vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near Mexico in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Germany	1939	27.4%	28.6%	44.0%
Norway	1914	30.8%	28.9%	40.3%
Croatia	1912	31.1%	28.9%	40.0%
Japan	1910	31.4%	28.9%	39.7%
Ecuador	1890	34.2%	29.0%	36.8%
Belgium	1879	35.8%	29.0%	35.2%
Uruguay	1870	37.1%	29.0%	33.9%
Denmark	1869	37.2%	29.0%	33.8%
Italy	1869	37.2%	29.0%	33.8%
Switzerland	1865	37.8%	29.0%	33.2%