United States

United States holds a World Football Elo rating of 1780, ranking #29 of 244 national teams — a strong national team. At the 2026 World Cup, United States is drawn in Group D, facing Paraguay, Australia and Turkey. The tables below estimate United States's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

United States at the 2026 World Cup

Group D fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-12	Paraguay	50.1%	27.8%	22.1%	Los Angeles (home)
06-19	Australia	41.5%	28.8%	29.7%	Seattle (home)
06-25	Turkey	40.0%	28.9%	31.1%	Los Angeles (home)

United States vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	3.0%	17.6%	79.4%
Argentina	2115	3.5%	18.3%	78.1%
France	2063	5.9%	20.9%	73.1%
England	2024	8.3%	22.7%	68.9%
Portugal	1989	11.0%	24.3%	64.8%
Colombia	1982	11.5%	24.6%	63.9%
Brazil	1978	11.9%	24.7%	63.4%
Netherlands	1944	15.0%	26.0%	59.0%
Germany	1939	15.5%	26.2%	58.3%
Norway	1914	18.1%	27.0%	54.9%
Croatia	1912	18.4%	27.0%	54.6%
Japan	1910	18.6%	27.1%	54.3%

United States vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near United States in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Austria	1830	28.5%	28.7%	42.8%
Scotland	1794	33.5%	29.0%	37.5%
South Korea	1786	34.6%	29.0%	36.4%
Paraguay	1780	35.5%	29.0%	35.5%
Ukraine	1780	35.5%	29.0%	35.5%
Algeria	1772	36.7%	29.0%	34.4%
Russia	1772	36.7%	29.0%	34.4%
Canada	1767	37.4%	29.0%	33.6%
Nigeria	1767	37.4%	29.0%	33.6%
Iran	1756	39.0%	28.9%	32.1%